July, 18 2023

REALTORS® Remain Upbeat Amidst Housing Challenges, Expecting Growth in Sales Volume and Prices

REALTOR® Sentiment Report:

Positive Outlook for Ventura REALTORS® and the California Housing Market

Business Conditions: Good News for REALTORS® – According to the latest CAR Member Sentiment Report, a majority of REALTORS® (63%) are experiencing good or excellent business conditions, a significant improvement compared to the previous survey, where only 54% of respondents reported the same positive sentiment.

Optimistic Outlook: REALTORS® Look to the Future –  The report reveals that nearly two-thirds of REALTORS® (64%) have an optimistic outlook for the future of their businesses, which reflects an upward trend from the previous survey, where 58% of respondents expressed the same level of optimism.

Satisfaction is Key: REALTORS® Content with Business – A remarkable 61% of CAR members indicated that they are satisfied or very satisfied with their businesses. This positive sentiment reflects the overall satisfaction of REALTORS® with their current professional circumstances.

Challenges Ahead: REALTORS® Face Obstacles – Despite the positive sentiment, REALTORS® do face some challenges. These include high inventory levels, low buyer demand, and rising mortgage rates. However, they remain optimistic about their business prospects despite these obstacles.

Looking Ahead: Expectations for REALTORS® – A majority of  REALTORS® (62%) anticipate an increase in sales volume in the next six months. Additionally, 58% of CAR members expect prices to rise during the same period, indicating confidence in future market conditions.

Ventura REALTORS® Remain Upbeat Amidst Housing Challenges, Expecting Growth in Sales Volume and Prices

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Housing Market Analysis

Inventory Levels: On the Decline – The report reveals that inventory levels in the housing market are still relatively high, impacting prices negatively. However, a positive development is that inventory levels are starting to decrease. This trend may contribute to price increases in the coming months.

Buyer Demand: Showing Signs of Improvement – Buyer demand in the housing market remains below pre-pandemic levels, resulting in downward price pressure. However, the report also indicates that buyer demand is on the rise, which could lead to price increases in the near future.

Mortgage Rates: A Balancing Act – While mortgage rates are increasing, potentially affecting buyer demand, they remain relatively low. This affordability factor may support demand in the months ahead.

Overall Assessment: REALTORS® Stay Positive – The CAR Member Sentiment Report conveys an optimistic outlook among REALTORS® for the future of their businesses. This positive sentiment is likely influenced by California’s strong demand for housing, which is expected to continue in the coming months and years.

First time homebuyers

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First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in June; Individual investors purchased 18% of homes; All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions; Distressed sales represented 2% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days.

NAR REPORT: Existing-Home Sales Retreated 3.3% in June; Monthly Median Sales Price Reached Second-Highest Amount Ever

  • Existing-home sales dropped 3.3% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million. Sales trailed off by 18.9% from one year ago.
  • At $410,200, the median existing-home sales price for June was the second-highest price ever recorded – since January 1999 when NAR began tracking the data – and 0.9% less than the all-time high from one year ago of $413,800. It was the third time the monthly median sales price eclipsed $400,000, joining June 2022 and May 2022 ($408,600). 
  • At 1.08 million at the end of June, the inventory of unsold existing homes was unchanged from the previous month, or the equivalent of 3.1 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.

California Housing Market Forecast: Insights for 2023

California’s housing market is dynamic, with rising prices and strong demand. But what can we expect in 2023? Here’s a look at what REALTORS® in California are forecasting:

Gradual Price Increases: A Slower Pace – The median home price is projected to reach $900,000 by the end of 2023, up from $800,000 in 2022. However, the appreciation rate is expected to slow down compared to the double-digit gains of previous years.

Low Inventory Levels Persist: Continued Pressure on Prices – The supply of homes for sale is anticipated to remain below historical averages in 2023. This scarcity will likely keep upward pressure on prices, contributing to the market’s competitiveness.

Housing Market At a Glance

California housing market at-a-glance for May 2023. Click to enlarge.

Housing Market Trends At a Glance

Ventura California housing market trends at-a-glance for May 2023. Click to enlarge.

Strong Buyer Demand: Anchored by Positive Factors – A robust job market and population growth are expected to sustain strong buyer demand in 2023. These factors should help counterbalance the impact of rising prices.

Conclusion: Steadfast Growth Expected

The California housing market is projected to maintain its strength in 2023, albeit at a slower pace. Home prices will continue to rise, inventory levels will remain low, and buyer demand will stay resilient. The specific impact of these factors on the market will depend on variables such as the trajectory of mortgage rates, inventory levels, and overall economic conditions.

Download This Week’s Write-Up

Weekly MLS Market Data Report

Monthly Member Sentiment Report

Dustin Balloun, Ventura County Coastal Association of REALTORS®